diff --git a/apps/coder/src/services/worktrees.ts b/apps/coder/src/services/worktrees.ts
index 820635a..aad7ead 100644
--- a/apps/coder/src/services/worktrees.ts
+++ b/apps/coder/src/services/worktrees.ts
@@ -196,7 +196,7 @@ export interface RiskReport {
   dirty: boolean;   // uncommitted working-tree changes (incl. untracked)
   unpushed: number; // commits ahead of upstream, or -1 if no upstream is set
   unmerged: number; // commits on this branch not in the project default branch
-  atRisk: boolean;  // dirty || unpushed !== 0 || unmerged > 0 || git error
+  atRisk: boolean;  // dirty || unmerged > 0 || (upstream && unpushed > 0) || git error
   error?: string;   // populated on a git failure; presence forces atRisk
 }
 
@@ -308,7 +308,13 @@ export async function checkWorktreeWorkAtRisk(
     if (rl.exitCode === 0) unmerged = parseInt(rl.stdout.trim() || '0', 10) || 0;
   }
 
-  const atRisk = dirty || unpushed !== 0 || unmerged > 0;
+  // unpushed only contributes when an upstream actually exists. Session branches
+  // (session-<id>) never have one (unpushed === -1), and any real local-only work
+  // there already surfaces as unmerged > 0 — so the no-upstream case adds no
+  // protection, only friction (it flagged every pristine worktree-backed session).
+  // The unpushed > 0 arm stays forward-compatible with P1.5 pushable branches.
+  const hasUpstream = unpushed !== -1;
+  const atRisk = dirty || unmerged > 0 || (hasUpstream && unpushed > 0);
   return { worktreePath, branch, dirty, unpushed, unmerged, atRisk };
 }